 # Lesson Plan: Data Science: Linear Regression with Global Average CO2 Concentrations

As an undergraduate Mathematics or Data Science teacher, you can use this set of computer-based tools to help you in teaching Introductory Statistics and specifically Linear Regression.

### Introduction

This lesson plan will help you to teach Introductory Statistics for Data Science through a Linear Regression assignment. The lesson plan includes a hands-on computer-based classroom activity to be conducted on a dataset of Yearly Global Average CO2 Concentrations in parts per million. This activity includes hands-on Python code, a set of inquiry-based questions that will enable your students to apply their understanding of scatter plots, regression equations, correlation coefficients, and linear regression.

Thus, the use of this lesson plan allows you to integrate the teaching of a climate science topic with a core topic in Mathematics, Statistics and Data Science.

### Questions

1. Use an example to describe linear regression analysis.
2. Use linear regression analyses to describe how global average CO2 concentrations have changed from 1980-2020 (last datapoint).
3. Discuss reasons for changes in global average CO2 concentrations and their impact on Earth’s climate.

### About the Lesson Plan

 Grade Level Undergraduate Discipline Mathematics, Data Science Topic(s) in Discipline Scatter Plots, Correlation Coefficients, Regression Equations, Linear Regression Climate Topic Climate and the Atmosphere Climate Variability Record Location Global Language(s) English Access Online, Offline Computer Skills Required Intermediate Approximate Time Required 60-80 min

### Contents

Contents

 Teaching Module (25 min) A teaching module to explain the basics of scatter plots, correlation coefficients, regression equations, and linear regression For High School For Undergraduate Video micro-lecture (~14 min) A video micro-lecture to give Introduction to Simple Linear Regression Classroom/ Laboratory activity (30 min) A classroom activity - Python Code to apply understanding of linear regression using a dataset of the Yearly Global Average CO2 Concentrations in parts per million (ppm) 1980-2020 Go to GitHub Repository

### Video

Here is a step-by-step guide to using this lesson plan in the classroom/laboratory. We have suggested these steps as a possible plan of action. You may customize the lesson plan according to your preferences and requirements.

 1 Topic introduction and discussion 1.         Use the teaching module, ‘Introduction-Linear Regression and Correlation’ by OpenStaxTM, Rice University (for High School level) or ‘Chapter-3: Linear Regression’ provided by Ramesh Sridharan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (for Undergraduate level), to introduce these topics of basic statistics. 2.         Navigate to the sub-sections within the module to the basics of scatter plots, correlation coefficients, regression equations, and linear regression. 3.         Use the in-built practice exercises and quizzes to evaluate your students’ understanding of the topics. For High School For Undergraduate 2 Develop the topic further Use the video micro-lecture, ‘Introduction to Simple Linear Regression’ by dataminingincae, INCAE Business School for a basic introduction to Simple Linear Regression and terms like dependant variable, independent variable, regression line, regression coefficients. 3 Extend understanding by practicing Hands-on Python code Dataset link Python Notebook link 1. Use the provided Dataset about Yearly Global Average CO2 Concentrations, file global-atm-co2.csv) and Python Notebook global-co2-concentration.ipynb. 2.   The dataset includes monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites for the span 1980-2020. Data Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 3.  Use the Python Notebook and Dataset to: Read the Dataset using DataFrame Know the basics of the dataset like its dimensions, data types and memory usage Plot the scatter plot of yearly average_co2_concentrations variable Use NumPy library to convert the DataFrame to NumPy Array which would be used in the further steps. Find the Regression Coefficients  for Simple Linear Regression Plot the scatter plot and Regression Line as per the predicted coefficients Calculate RMSE (Root Mean-Squared Error-values) Discuss how well the Regression Line describes the data points. 4. Encourage your students to answer topical questions by applying their understanding of scatter plots, correlation coefficients, regression equations and linear regression. 5.   Use the regression analyses performed to initiate a discussion on the increase in global average CO2 concentrations from 1980 to 2020 due to anthropogenic activities causing CO2 emissions.

### Python Notebook  