Climate Change Education Across the Curricula, Across the GlobeLesson Plan: Analyzing Trends and Calculating Uncertainty using Hurricane Data Records

As an undergraduate Statistics teacher, you can use this set of computer-based tools to help you in teaching statistical analysis topics such as Trends, Uncertainty, Confidence interval, and Student’s t-distribution.

As an undergraduate Geography or Earth Sciences teacher, you can use this set of computer-based tools to help you in teaching disasters, hurricanes, the possible impact of climate change on hurricanes, and the analysis of trends in hurricane intensity.

This lesson plan allows your students to perform statistical analysis and interpretation of data (specifically, analyzing trends and determining uncertainty) by using hurricane data records. In the activity, students will explore possible trends in hurricane intensity and number over the past 40 years, and will investigate a possible link between climate change and hurricane strength.

Thus, the use of this lesson plan allows you to integrate the teaching of a climate science topic with a core topic in Statistics, Geography, or Earth Sciences.

Questions

Use this lesson plan to help your students find answers to:

1. Is there an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes over the past few decades?
2. Calculate the trend and determine the confidence interval for the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean from past records.
3. Calculate the trend and evaluate the uncertainty for the intensity of hurricanes.
4. What are the possible effects of climate change on the intensity and number of tropical cyclones/hurricanes?

About Lesson Plan

Grade Level	Undergraduate
Discipline	Statistics, Geography, Earth Sciences
Topic(s) in Discipline	• Statistics: Inferential Statistics, Trend Analysis, Uncertainty, Confidence Interval, Student’s t-Distribution • Geography, Earth Sciences : Disasters, Hazards, Hurricanes, Storms, Oceanography, Trends in Hurricane Intensity
Climate Topic	Disasters and Hazards
Location	Global (data in the activity is for the Atlantic Ocean)
Languages	English
Access	Online, Offline
Approximate Time Required	100 min

Contents

Micro-lecture (video) (~9 min)	A micro-lecture (video) that introduces the topic of confidence interval. https://www.coursera.org/learn/hypothesis-testing-confidence-intervals/lecture/cpecc/introducing-confidence-interval
Micro-lecture (video) (~8 min)	A micro-lecture (video) that introduces the topic of t-distribution. https://www.coursera.org/learn/inferential-statistics-intro/lecture/FlRrd/t-distribution
Classroom/ Laboratory activity (~60 min)	A classroom/laboratory activity to calculate trends and uncertainties in hurricane intensity by analyzing hurricane data records over 40 years. https://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/hurricanes/activities/28276.html
Reading (~10 min)	A reading on changes in hurricane activity. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-hurricanes

Step-by-Step User Guide

Questions/Assignments

Learning Outcomes

Additional Resources

Credits

Here is a step-by-step guide to using this lesson plan in the classroom/laboratory. We have suggested these steps as a possible plan of action. You may customize the lesson plan according to your preferences and requirements.

1.Introduce the topic through a micro-lecture (video)	• Introduce the topic of trends and confidence intervals. • Play this micro-lecture (video) (approx. 9 min), “Introducing Confidence Interval”, to explain confidence intervals. • The micro-lecture “Introducing Confidence Interval”, from Rice University on Coursera, is available at https://www.coursera.org/learn/hypothesis-testing-confidence-intervals/lecture/cpecc/introducing-confidence-interval • Explain t-distribution with the help of another micro-lecture (video) (approx. 8 min), “t-distribution” from Duke University on Coursera https://www.coursera.org/learn/inferential-statistics-intro/lecture/FlRrd/t-distribution
2. Conduct a classroom/laboratory activity	• Next, explore the topics in more detail through a hands-on classroom/laboratory activity, “Is There a Trend in Hurricane Intensity?” • This activity will help your students determine trends, uncertainties, and confidence intervals by analyzing actual hurricane data records for the Atlantic Ocean over a period of 40 years. They will also discuss the potential link between climate change and hurricane intensity. • Download the documents (teaching material and tips) for the activity from https://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/hurricanes/activities/28276.html • Conduct the activities and assignments described in the teaching material (analysis and interpretation of actual data by using MS Excel).
3. Discuss using a reading	• Then, read the article, “Changes in Hurricanes”, from GlobalChange.gov, to discuss the changes in hurricane activity and climate-related factors that may affect hurricane development. • Link: https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-hurricanes

Use the tools and the concepts learned so far to discuss and determine answers to the following questions:

1. Is there an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes over the past few decades?
2. Calculate the trend and determine the confidence interval for the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean from past records.
3. Calculate the trend and evaluate the uncertainty for the intensity of hurricanes.
4. What are the possible effects of climate change on the intensity and number of tropical cyclones/hurricanes?

1. Micro-lecture (video), “Introducing Confidence Interval”	“Business Applications of Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Interval Estimation” course by Rice University on Coursera
2. Micro-lecture (video), “t-distribution”	“Inferential Statistics” course by Duke University on Coursera
3. Classroom/Laboratory activity, “Is There a Trend in Hurricane Intensity?”	Teach the Earth portal at SERC Carleton
4. Reading, “Changes in Hurricanes”	GlobalChange.gov
5. Additional Resources	The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES)
6. Images	http://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/t-test/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/hurricanes/

All the teaching tools and images in our collated list are owned by the corresponding creators/authors/organizations as listed on their websites. Please view the individual copyright and ownership details for each tool by following the individual links provided. We have selected and analyzed the tools that align with the overall objective of our project and have provided the corresponding links. We do not claim ownership of or responsibility/liability for any of the listed tools.