Lesson Plan: Analyzing Trends and Calculating Uncertainty using Hurricane Data Records

Here is a step-by-step guide to using this lesson plan in the classroom/laboratory. We have suggested these steps as a possible plan of action. You may customize the lesson plan according to your preferences and requirements.

1.Introduce the topic through a micro-lecture (video)	• Introduce the topic of trends and confidence intervals. •  Play this micro-lecture (video) (approx. 9 min), “Introducing Confidence Interval”, to explain confidence intervals. • The micro-lecture “Introducing Confidence Interval”, from Rice University on Coursera, is available at https://www.coursera.org/learn/hypothesis-testing-confidence-intervals/lecture/cpecc/introducing-confidence-interval • Explain t-distribution with the help of another micro-lecture (video) (approx. 8 min), “t-distribution” from Duke University on Coursera https://www.coursera.org/learn/inferential-statistics-intro/lecture/FlRrd/t-distribution
2. Conduct a classroom/laboratory activity	• Next, explore the topics in more detail through a hands-on classroom/laboratory activity, “Is There a Trend in Hurricane Intensity?”   • This activity will help your students determine trends, uncertainties, and confidence intervals by analyzing actual hurricane data records for the Atlantic Ocean over a period of 40 years. They will also discuss the potential link between climate change and hurricane intensity. • Download the documents (teaching material and tips) for the activity from https://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/hurricanes/activities/28276.html •  Conduct the activities and assignments described in the teaching material (analysis and interpretation of actual data by using MS Excel).
3. Discuss using a reading	• Then, read the article, “Changes in Hurricanes”, from GlobalChange.gov, to discuss the changes in hurricane activity and climate-related factors that may affect hurricane development. • Link:  https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-hurricanes

 

Use the tools and the concepts learned so far to discuss and determine answers to the following questions:

•  1.  Is there an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes over the past few decades?
•  2.  Calculate the trend and determine the confidence interval for the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean from past records.
•  3.  Calculate the trend and evaluate the uncertainty for the intensity of hurricanes.
•  4.  What are the possible effects of climate change on the intensity and number of tropical cyclones/hurricanes?

The tools in this lesson plan will enable students to:

• •  calculate trends in data
• •  determine uncertainty and evaluate confidence in trends using Student's t-distribution
• •  discuss the possible impacts of climate change on the intensity and number of hurricanes

If you or your students would like to explore the topic further, these additional resources will be useful.

Reading

A reading, “Hurricanes and Climate Change”, from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions: https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

1. Micro-lecture (video), “Introducing Confidence Interval”	“Business Applications of Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Interval Estimation” course by Rice University on Coursera
2. Micro-lecture (video), “t-distribution”	“Inferential Statistics” course by Duke University on Coursera
3. Classroom/Laboratory activity, “Is There a Trend in Hurricane Intensity?”	Teach the Earth portal at SERC Carleton
4. Reading, “Changes in Hurricanes”	GlobalChange.gov
5. Additional Resources	The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES)
6. Images	http://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/t-test/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/hurricanes/

All the teaching tools and images  in our collated list are owned by the corresponding creators/authors/organizations as  listed on their websites. Please view the individual copyright and ownership details for each tool by following the individual links provided. We have selected and analyzed the tools that align with the overall objective of our project and have provided the corresponding links. We do not claim ownership of or responsibility/liability for any of the listed tools.