Teaching Module: Predict the Climate by throwing a dice

pair of white dice on top of mirror
Photo by Skitterphoto on Pexels.com

A teaching module that uses a dice and Excel to demonstrate the difference between experimental and theoretical probabilities. It also uses temperature and precipitation data to calculate moving average, identify trends in time series, and learn about data visualization.

This teaching module provides multiple resources under 4 categories:

  1. Teachers’ notes for ‘Using sample data sets’ for offline teaching.
  2. Teachers’ notes, students’ notes, sample spreadsheet, presentation and presentation notes for ‘ Using dice as Climate Model’ for offline teaching using a computer.
  3. Teachers’ notes and students’ worksheet for ‘Investigating climate data using climateprediction.net results’ for online teaching, and
  4. Presentation and teaching notes for designing statistical questionnaire

Students will ​​learn about Excel functions, such as RAND, IF, and AVERAGE. They will also learn about visualization, modeling, probability and time series through climate modeling. Furthermore, students will also learn basic methodology used while designing questionnaires. 

Use this tool to help students find answers to:

  1. If you throw a dice 100 times, can you predict the climate? What is the probability that the 101st throw will be 4?
  2. Using climatepredictions.net to run temperature models, calculate the percentage error for each model.
  3. How is climate predicted? Why does climate prediction require the use of multiple models run over long periods of time? 

About the Tool

Tool NameKey stage 3 & 4 Maths
DisciplineMathematics and Statistics
Topic(s) in DisciplineProbability, Average, Moving Average, Mean, Time Series, Visualization, Questionnaire Formulation
Climate TopicClimate Variability Record; Climate and the Atmosphere
Type of toolTeaching Module
Grade LevelHigh School
Developed byclimateprediction.net
Hosted atclimateprediction.net
AccessOnline/ Offline
Computer SkillsBasic
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