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Predict the Climate by throwing a dice

Teaching Module

A teaching module that uses a dice and Excel to demonstrate the difference between experimental and theoretical probabilities. It also uses temperature and precipitation data to calculate moving average, identify trends in time series, and learn about data visualisation.

This teaching module provides multiple resources under 4 categories:

  1. Teachers’ notes for ‘Using sample data sets’ for offline teaching.
  2. Teachers’ notes, students’ notes, sample spreadsheet, presentation and presentation notes for ‘ Using dice as Climate Model’ for offline teaching using a computer.
  3. Teachers’ notes and students’ worksheet for ‘Investigating climate data using climateprediction.net results’ for online teaching, and
  4. Presentation and teaching notes for designing statistical questionnaire

Students will learn about Excel functions, such as RAND, IF, and AVERAGE. They will also learn about visualisation, modelling, probability and time series through climate modeling. Furthermore, students will also learn basic methodology used while designing questionnaires.

Use this tool to help your students find answers to:

  1. If you throw a dice 100 times, can you predict the climate? What is the probability that the 101st throw will be 4?
  2. Using climatepredictions.net to run temperature models, calculate the percentage error for each model.
  3. How is climate predicted? Why does climate prediction require the use of multiple models run over long periods of time?
About Tool
Tool Name Key stage 3 & 4 Maths
Discipline Mathematics and Statistics 
Topic(s) in Discipline Introduction to Statistics, Trend Analysis, Probability, Average, Moving Average, Mean, Time Series, Visualisation, Questionnaire Formulation
Climate Topic Climate Variability Record, Climate and the Atmosphere
Type of tool Teaching Module
Grade Level High School
Location Global
Language English
Translation      –
Developed by climateprediction.net 
Hosted at climateprediction.net
Access Online/ Offline
Computer Skills Basic


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